Real-Time Adversarial Intelligence & Decision Making (RAID)

Goals:

The RAID program will be conducted in three 12-month phases. Funding for later phases is entirely contingent upon meeting system-level performance goals established for earlier phases.

Phase I: Adversarial Anticipation And Counteraction: Develop mechanisms to compute adversarial, anticipative, move-countermove actions.

Phase II: Adversarial Reasoning About Concealment And Deception: Develop ability to see through fog or war and recognize deceptions.

Phase III: Integration and Transition to Army DCGS-A: Develop fieldable products which can integrate with existing C2 and ISR systems.

Phase I, II, and III Gate Criteria

Experiments at the end of each phase will yield several key metrics to be used for the go-nogo decisions regarding the continuing funding of the RAID program. All metrics assume the experimental conditions summarized in the Experimental Plan.

Power: the computational scale of the problem that RAID can solve, measured by the nominal search space of the problem. This number grows with increased number and types of assets on Blue and Red side, complexity of terrain, increased number and granularity of the combatants' actions, etc. For comparison, this number for the game of chess is typically estimated at 10**35. RAID is looking at astronomically larger problems. Larger is better. PI > 10**8,000; PII > 10**20,000; PIII > 10**60,000]

Speed: time required by RAID in order to deliver its predictive estimates to the user; measured from the moment when the user requests RAID estimated and until the estimates are displayed on the user interface. Smaller number (faster) is better. [PI < 300 sec; PII < 120 sec; PIII < 30 sec]

Workload: the minimal number of people (full-time equivalents) necessary to operate the RAID system during the execution of an operation. Ideally, the user-operator of the RAID tool will need only a fraction of his time to attend to the needs of the tool. Smaller is better. [PI = 2; PII = 1; PIII = 0.5]

Accuracy: the number of wrong predictions made by RAID, expressed as a fraction of total predictions and compared statistically to the same measure of human expert performance. Typical predictions will refer to tangible estimates used in the practice of Military Intelligence, such as location, strengths and actions of an enemy unit at a particular time interval in the future. Wrong predictions include false positive - red actions that are predicted but do not occur, false negative - red actions occur but are not predicted. This measure will not be used in Phase 1 due to the fact that the focus of development in Phase 1 will be on predicting what Army doctrine calls most dangerous actions as opposed to most likely (influenced by Red culture, etc.) which will be a focus of Phase 2. Lower is better. [PI = n/a; PII ,T 1.0; PIII ,T 1.0]

Effectiveness: the overall score (combining such factors as advance to objectives, destruction of the Red force, etc.) achieved by the Blue side. The score achieved in the test series (with RAID and 1-2 personnel) will be compared statistically to those achieved by a full staff of human experts (5-7 personnel) without RAID. Higher is better. [PI ,d 1.0; PII ,d 1.0; PIII ,d 1.0]

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